Demography - a major challenge
Fredosor.com
Aging and migration -
how will we deal with it?
Four major findings:
1. In 2045 the number of older persons (aged 60 and over) in the world is for the first time in the history of humanity expected to exceed the number of children (aged under 15). In the more developed regions of the world, this happened already in 1998.
2. Population aging results mainly from reductions in fertility, that have become virtually universal. Improved health care is also a factor, reducing old age mortality.
3. Population aging will have a major impact on all aspects of society such as economic growth, savings, investment, consumption, labor markets, pensions, taxation, housing demand, transfers between generations, and health care demand.
4. Population aging is enduring. The proportion of older persons has been steadily rising, from 8 per cent in 1950 to 9 per cent in 2009, and is expected to reach 22 per cent in 2050.
Other main findings:
· Globally, the population of older persons is growing at a rate of 2,6 per cent per year, while the population as a whole grows by 1,2 per cent annually.
· There are marked differences between developed and developing regions in the number and proportion of older persons. Today, over 20 percent of the population in the developed world is over 60, while just 8 per cent are at that age in the developing world. By 2050, the developing world will reach the stage where the developed world is today – whereas in the developed world about one third (33 per cent) will be over 60.
· The pace of population aging is faster in the developing world, thereby giving these regions less time and less resources to adjust.
· The median age of the world is today 28 years. The region with the youngest population is Africa. The country with the youngest population is Niger, with a median age of 15 years. Japan has the oldest population, with a median age of 44 years. These differences will of course affect migration trends very strongly.
· Among the persons over 60, the fastest growing age group is that over 80. By 2050, 20 per cent of the persons over 60 will be in this group.
· The potential support ratio (PSR), number of workers per older person over 65, will fall. Between 1950 and 2009 this ration fell from 12 to 9. By 2050 this ratio is expected to reach 4.
· Women live longer than men, and currently outnumber men by an estimated 66 million among those over 60. Among those aged 80 years and over, women are about twice as numerous than men. Among centenarians, women are four to five times as numerous.
· 80 per cent of men over 60 are living with a spouse, while under 50 per cent of women do.
· Rural areas have higher number of both older persons and children in relation to the number of persons in working age, and thus lower PSRs than urban areas. This results from both higher fertility rates and higher out-migration rates of people in working age in rural areas.
These findings are published in the UN report: "World Population Ageing" (UN Population Division, 2010). If you are interested in population projections for individual countries in the world, you can enter the site of World Population Prospects.
1. In 2045 the number of older persons (aged 60 and over) in the world is for the first time in the history of humanity expected to exceed the number of children (aged under 15). In the more developed regions of the world, this happened already in 1998.
2. Population aging results mainly from reductions in fertility, that have become virtually universal. Improved health care is also a factor, reducing old age mortality.
3. Population aging will have a major impact on all aspects of society such as economic growth, savings, investment, consumption, labor markets, pensions, taxation, housing demand, transfers between generations, and health care demand.
4. Population aging is enduring. The proportion of older persons has been steadily rising, from 8 per cent in 1950 to 9 per cent in 2009, and is expected to reach 22 per cent in 2050.
Other main findings:
· Globally, the population of older persons is growing at a rate of 2,6 per cent per year, while the population as a whole grows by 1,2 per cent annually.
· There are marked differences between developed and developing regions in the number and proportion of older persons. Today, over 20 percent of the population in the developed world is over 60, while just 8 per cent are at that age in the developing world. By 2050, the developing world will reach the stage where the developed world is today – whereas in the developed world about one third (33 per cent) will be over 60.
· The pace of population aging is faster in the developing world, thereby giving these regions less time and less resources to adjust.
· The median age of the world is today 28 years. The region with the youngest population is Africa. The country with the youngest population is Niger, with a median age of 15 years. Japan has the oldest population, with a median age of 44 years. These differences will of course affect migration trends very strongly.
· Among the persons over 60, the fastest growing age group is that over 80. By 2050, 20 per cent of the persons over 60 will be in this group.
· The potential support ratio (PSR), number of workers per older person over 65, will fall. Between 1950 and 2009 this ration fell from 12 to 9. By 2050 this ratio is expected to reach 4.
· Women live longer than men, and currently outnumber men by an estimated 66 million among those over 60. Among those aged 80 years and over, women are about twice as numerous than men. Among centenarians, women are four to five times as numerous.
· 80 per cent of men over 60 are living with a spouse, while under 50 per cent of women do.
· Rural areas have higher number of both older persons and children in relation to the number of persons in working age, and thus lower PSRs than urban areas. This results from both higher fertility rates and higher out-migration rates of people in working age in rural areas.
These findings are published in the UN report: "World Population Ageing" (UN Population Division, 2010). If you are interested in population projections for individual countries in the world, you can enter the site of World Population Prospects.